Statistics in Chinese beliefs: Tossing the coins

When I was young, I used to go to the temple with my mom. And I would observe these practice of deeply religious and superstitious Chinese, mostly old ladies, who would toss coins or some sort of apparatus on the ground with eyes closed and while mumbling some prayers. Then they would look at the coins to see if God or the elders has approved of their request or prayers.

The same goes to the ceremony for remembering the elders, my mom would prepare lotsa food, and put them on a table in front of the altar. After an hour or so, she would throw the coins, and see if they end up on opposite sides, that is, if one is head, and the other one should be tail. If not, she will throw it again, up to a maximum of 3 times. If after 3 times, the coins still doesn’t end up on their opposite sides, she will wait for a while, probably 30 minutes, and try it again. Apparently it’s to find out if the elders have finished “eating”, and whether we can collect the food.

Once, I followed my gf and her friends to a fortune teller, and I observed the same practice. The girls would shake a bin full of long sticks with some words written on it until one of it fell, and then throw the apparatus in a similar manner. They would throw it three times to see if the “fortune” is the right one, if the apparatus ends up on opposite ends within the three tries. If it doesn’t, they would shake the bin again.

Now, being the self proclaimed mathematician that I am, I did some number crunching, and I found that, in three tries:

  • The odds of getting opposite sides (“fortune” is correct): 7 out of 8 tries (7/8)
  • The odds of getting the same sides (“fortune” is not correct): 1 out of 8 tries (1/8)

I don’t know why they want to throw the coins/apparatus, because 7 out of 8 times (87.5% of the time), it would be the right one, and 7 out of 8 times, the elders would have finished eating. When I told them this fact, they were amazed alright, since they’ve never looked at it from this angle, but they told me I took the fun out of the ritual…. haha.

Oh well.

3 Responses

  • Eh.. old ladies? I also do that ok. HAHAHHAHAHA!!!!!!!

    Anyway ah.. I think, that is why, the “elders” always makan punya.. there is always a rare case that, they won’t makan. HAHA! Now .. at least I know why.

  • I also like to shake the bin whenever I go to the temple. Very interesting, especially when i get the best one. Ha ha …I also grown up like you, and I still believe there must be a way to communicate to the unseen, coin is one good way.

  • gina: woops.. when I was young everyone looked older to me.. :P

    molly: using coins to communicate with the unseen are just a custom or ritual that’s passed down through the generations… i don’t know if people are exactly sure that it’s a real method to communicate or they’re just doing it because their parents and their parents’ parents has been doing it..

Leave a Reply